Timing Tell Experiment: 3Bet Every PreFlop Raise that Takes Between 5-9 Seconds

Below is an experiment I recently decided to start at $50NL Full-Ring. I was curious to see how often a preflop raiser would fold to a 3bet after showing a timing range of general hesitation and weakness.

Question: Is there a direct correlation between timing down before a preflop raise and weakness?

Hypothesis: I believe that there is a direct correlation between preflop hesitation and weakness. Most players are happy to open strong hands at a fast rate because they want to hurry up and see what kind of action they get.

Testing: For the experiment I will be 3betting whatever hand I have when an opponent raises preflop with a timing between 5-9 seconds. If another opponent calls the preflop raise or the raiser is isolating a limper/poster, I will not 3bet them. I will be 3betting my opponents to 3x their original raise size in position, and 3.33x out of position (including blind costs). Only when an opponent folds will I mark the hand as a success, otherwise it is a failure.

Results: I conducted this experiment over three sessions in three days and 1,366 hands. Over 58 attempts, 46 of them led to folds. This comes out to 46-12, for a fold rate of 79.3%.

Analysis: On average I ended up 3betting to a size of 3.17x the original raiser. If the preflop raiser raised to 3x the big blind on average, this would mean our 3bet would have to work about 67.9% of the time.

(9.51BB)/(9.51BB+3BB+1BB+.5BB) = .6788

So a success rate of 79.3% was extremely profitable.

Conclusion: While this experiment showed a nice profit, blind 3betting every preflop raise that takes between 5-9 seconds is not a great idea. In the real poker world, your opponents will adjust to this rather quickly and you will see your success rate dwindle.

However, if you were to pick good spots like being in position, choosing an opponent’s timing range of 5-9 seconds and having what is considered a good hand to 3bet with, you should notice an immediate increase in your overall 3bet success rate. Not only will your success rate go up, but you will appear to be a more aggressive player in general, which is always a good thing.

Overall Results at $50NL Full-Ring: I thought I would also take this time to share my overall results since starting to play $50NL full-ring. Besides the Time Mojo HUD, I have only been using opponents’ VPIP and PFR statistics to influence my decisions.

Happy 3betting!