The stake for review is $2/$5
NL 6max Zoom games on PokerStars. The current sample size we obtained for
this stake is about 125,000 hands.
There are two theories we had before analyzing the data for
this trend.
1. The quickest 3Bets are likely to receive
fewer folds to 4Bets in comparison to the overall fold percentage.
If a player is multi-tabling and they pick up a premium hand
with the chance to 3Bet, they will do so quickly in order to move to the next
table and decision.
2. Longer 3Bets are likely to receive more folds to 4Bets in comparison to the overall fold percentage.
Players who take a long time to 3bet are likely debating
whether or not they should 3bet a marginal hand. They are checking things like
their opponent’s fold to 3bet%, other various HUD stats and current game flow
dynamics.
As in the previous study, we used the 3Bet timing median, 7.09
seconds, as a reference point to define a quick and long bet. Below are the
results of our theories applied to the sample set:
From the data shown, you can see that there is a correlation
between very quick actions compared to long actions. Specifically, there is
about an 11%
edge gained in 4Bet bluffing a long
3Bet and an 18%
edge lost in 4Bet bluffing a very quick 3Bet.
To spare you from math (please reference the first article’s
example for details), we will list the calculated edge gained/lost assuming a
3BB RFI, 9BB 3Bet, a 2.22x sized 4bet bluff and that your opponent will only fold or go all-in.
Please note that we do not advise any player to start 4Bet
bluffing every 3Bet of 10.09s+ or to never 4Bet bluff a quick 3Bet. However,
this timing read is a powerful filter, that when added to your arsenal, can
provide a boost to your win rate and confidence.
If you have any questions about timing tell strategy or
ideas for trend analysis, feel free to contact us on our website: https://timemojo.com/contact-us/
Thanks for reading and we hope you enjoyed the article!
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