Today we will be exploring one of these trends. The stake I
have selected for review is $2/$5 NL
6max Zoom games on PokerStars. The current sample size we obtained for this
stake is about 100,000 hands.
The first trend I want to talk about is “Raise First in (RFI) and Fold to 3Bet %”,
based on the timing of the RFI.
There are two theories we had before analyzing the data for
this trend.
1. The quickest RFIs are likely to receive
fewer folds to 3bets in comparison to the overall fold percentage.
The reason is, if a player is multi-tabling and they pick up
a premium hand with the chance to RFI, they will do so quickly in order to move
to the next table and decision.
2. Players who take a very long time to RFI
are likely distracted with other tables and are unsure if they want to RFI at
another when holding a marginal hand.
This also ties in with our first theory, that a distracted
player will instantly raise a strong hand. Therefore, these long RFI timings
will result to a higher fold to 3bet percentage.
Before I show the results, I want to explain the reason
behind the timing ranges we used. Determining exactly what a quick bet is based
on timing can vary from stake to stake and game to game. In order to solve
this, we decided to use the median timing of the sample size (3.54s) as a reference point.
With that being said, we decided to define a very quick RFI as 1.54 seconds (2 seconds less than the median) or less.
For our second theory, we decided to define a very long RFI
as 9.01 seconds or higher. We feel this is a strong indication that a player is
well distracted and would have quickly raised a premium hand in order to move
on.
Below are the results of our theories applied to the sample
set:
From the data shown, you can see that there is a correlation
between very quick actions compared to very long actions. Specifically, there
is about an 8% edge lost in 3bet bluffing a very quick bet and about a 9% edge
gained in 3bet bluffing a very long bet.
If this doesn’t sound like much to you, consider the
following 3bet example (warning, math):
Before the example, let us assume that your entire 3bet
range is bluffs and that your opponent either folds or jams over your 3bet.
This means that you either win his original raise and the blinds or lose your
3bet bluff.
Example Hand:
Villain Raises 3BB
Player B Folds
Player C Folds
Hero Raises 9BB
Small Blind Folds (.5BB)
Big Blind Folds (1BB)
The Hero’s 3bet has to win 66.67% of the time in order to be
a break-even play, which we will also assume is the player’s overall 3bet success
rate.
Now let’s assume that the player starts winning in this
situation at 71.12% (added edge from the table above).
This means you would win 3.2BB 71.12% of the time and lose 2.6BB
28.88% of the time.
Therefore, the expected value of each 3bet at a 71.12%
success rate is .6BB.
Apply this difference in win rate over 1,000 attempts, and
you are talking about +600BBs, or +$3,000 at
$2/$5.
Alternatively, if you subtract the loss of edge from above
by 3betting quick RFI’s, your 3bet success rate would be 63%. This would yield
an expected value of -.495BB per attempt. Over 1,000 attempts, this is -495BBs
or -$2,475 at $2/$5.
Please note that I do not advise any player to start
3betting every RFI of 9.01s+, or to never 3bet a quick RFI. However, this
timing read is a powerful filter, that when applied in well selected spots, can
provide a boost to your win rate and confidence.
If you have any questions about timing tell strategy or
ideas for trend analysis, feel free to contact us on our website: https://timemojo.com/contact-us/
Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed the article!
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