Saturday, April 6, 2013

Using Timing Reads to Make a Three Barrel Bluff

The player in the following hand is a tight regular.

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
UTG+1: $50.00
Hero (MP1): $55.36
MP2: $50.00
CO: $59.84
BTN: $20.00
SB: $58.81
BB: $54.79
UTG: $42.41

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP1 with 8 of clubs 7 of hearts

2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold,
CO calls $1.25 (2.5s),

My opponent in this hand makes a snap preflop call, which tells me he is unlikely to have a premium hand since he would usually want to take time to decide if he wanted to 3bet or not.  

BTN calls $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($5.25) Q of diamonds 2 of hearts 7 of clubs (4 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $3.25,
CO calls $3.25 (3.5s),

This call timing tells me that my opponent is now less likely to have a set. With a strong hand like a set, most opponents are likely to take time to look at all possibilities rather than to quickly call.

BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($11.75) K of spades (2 players)

Because I am blocking the 77 set and my opponent is extremely unlikely to have QQ+, I am happy to try to bet again and let his timing help narrow down his range.

Hero bets $7.25,
CO calls $7.25 (2.5s)

This quick call tells me a number of things. The first is that the K was unlikely to help him as he would have probably considered his options before snap calling. The second is that he is unlikely to have a set at this point since big hands like to take their time to figure out how to extract maximum value. After narrowing down his range, his most likely holding is QTs, QJs or AQ.

River: ($26.25) 3 of hearts (2 players)

Another thing I would like to mention is that when a regular makes a quick turn call on a card that potentially weakens his hand, they are often uncomfortable with the situation and just want the hand to get to showdown.

Since I have been able to narrow my opponents range down to mostly Qx type hands and my opponent appears to be uncomfortable, I am confident that a decent sized bet should be able to take down the pot.

Hero bets $18, CO folds

Final Pot: $26.25
Hero mucks 8 of clubs 7 of hearts
Hero wins $25.07
(Rake: $1.18)

Whenever your opponents are quickly calling your bets they are not likely to have a strong holding. Anytime someone has a strong hand they typically like to think about every possibility as they want to make sure they extract maximum value. Good luck and thanks for reading!

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